How to forecast weather and storms

[SteveP]

I think we should share our tips on forecasting storms.

If you have a day with heavy ice fog, typically that is followed by storm the next day.

If you see the crows flying back and abandoning their circling, that's also an indication of an imminent storm.

I don't know if the color of the sky at dawn and dusk is a useful indication of weather or not. I don't think so.

The weather seems to run in cycles now with several days of decent weather followed by ice fog and then storm. I could be mistaken but can y'all confirm that?

I often notice people starting to hunt on a very bad weather day or just before the bad weather blows in. Being aware of the weather cycles will really help avoid bad conditions that can kill you fast or wear your clothing down to nothing. PICK your hunting day guys and gals!! Try to do it before your food supplies run too low. I am bad for that. Try to do too much crafting before hunting again.

I do have some comments in my Youtube channel on weather. If you find a good comment while watching, please do others a favor and note the time stamp on the video in the comments like this 22:10 is 22 minute and ten seconds into the video and you can click it to jump to that spot!

[SteveP]

Can anyone expand on their own observations about weather and early indications of storms or storms about to end? I have noticed that the storms seem to abate a little in the afternoon at times but then return.

[illanthropist]

I'm not sure there is a predictable pattern to observe outside of short term say 4hrs or so but I will make a mental note to try.  If daylight is on my side I've usually just rested for 2hrs at a time if I have nothing to do indoors.  Also wondering if some areas are more prone than others in terms of fog etc, think there is a tendency for more fog in Coastal Highway and Pleasant Valley than Mystery Lake, clear skies aren't always a good indicator either I've found, had crippling cold spells with next to no windchill so I'm assuming there are no long term forecasting techniques, I'll endeavour to prove myself wrong however.

[SteveP]

If I recall correctly, during a recent release a few months back, Hinterland spoke of weather cycles. I know I get several days of decent weather between the storm episodes and fog seems to precede the storm. That's kind of contrary to my experience which is that fog is what happens after a clear sky when the temps plummet at night. Once the fog burns off, its blues skies typically (just not in TLD)

Have you ever observed birds fleeing in advance of an incoming storm front on TLD? Is that a thing? I'm hoping Raphael might chime in; I notice he's done a lot more posts lately and shared more internal design information to help clear up our speculations at times.

If it were at all possible, I wonder if we could see the big banks of nasty clouds that precede oncoming storms from the South in our area (not far from Vancouver Island)

[cekivi]

One thing I've noticed in my games is that the sky changes colour (normally from blue -> green) and then the wind starts picking up if a blizzard is blowing in. However, in the update you mentioned it also said that the weather indicators will be slightly different for each map. The green skies and increasing wind I've only noticed on Mystery Lake and Pleasant Valley since those are the two areas I play on most. And even then I sometimes get surprised by the weather still. Normally because I do an activity that takes a long time (like harvesting a deer) and the weather changes while I'm doing it

So, you can predict the weather based on the sky but I haven't mastered it yet.

 

[SEAplane]

Need the weather to change, just get hurt.  Cue the pain blizzard 

I think ML had the best pattern prior to TwMtn update.(100 day run) That being said my latest run is TwMtn and have yet to see a set pattern.(25 days)

+1 birds coming or going.

+1 morning fog to clearing later

My .02 : Morning snow does not seem to last as much as evening snow. Blizzards seem to end if I find shelter and start a fire with a 3-4hr rest, other wise have seen them last full days or until overnight.

[Vhalkyrie]

I take notes in my journal to see if I can track weather patterns (playing on Voyager).  For the most part, not really.  The only thing I am fairly confident is if birds fly directly over me, the weather is going to change in approximately 1 hour.  Doesn't necessary mean bad weather, but it's going to change.  If I'm out in the open and birds flock over me, I start heading towards shelter - just in case.

Mystery Lake seems to have the most stable weather.  Pleasant Valley has greater chance of blizzards.  Coastal Highway and Desolation Point have greater chance of heavy fog.  I haven't spent enough time in Timberwolf on Voyager, but I'm guessing it is more blizzards like PV.

[cekivi]

4 hours ago, Vhalkyrie said:

Mystery Lake seems to have the most stable weather.  Pleasant Valley has greater chance of blizzards.  Coastal Highway and Desolation Point have greater chance of heavy fog.  I haven't spent enough time in Timberwolf on Voyager, but I'm guessing it is more blizzards like PV.

Timberwolf mountain has a lot of high winds and blizzards and blowing snow can come in rapidly. Since it's the high mountains weather changes seem to happen quickly but not last very long. I've yet to be stuck in a multi-day blizzard on the mountain but I have had it blow up really high winds and snow with little warning.

[SEAplane]

Agree with cekivi.  I've never had to spend a full day inside up on TM.  It's not as scary as it sounds.  I find PV the hardest place to live and cold to boot.

[Vhalkyrie]

1 minute ago, SEAplane said:

Agree with cekivi.  I've never had to spend a full day inside up on TM.  It's not as scary as it sounds.  I find PV the hardest place to live and cold to boot.

No joke!  I've lived in PV 45 days (out of 75 total), and I'm eager to get out of here.  The multi-day blizzards (at least in my game) are maddening.

I'm really eager to move into the Lodge.  I know that it's a bit drafty in there, but I am wanting to try it!

[illanthropist]

I found out by accident, you can change the weather!

Recently when was going stalking a bear spawn I headed out from base in heavy snow but not too cold, got bored and logged out instead of returning to trappers cabin.

On my next log in, although the weather was the same when leaving the cabin, unlike before it cleared up in no time.

This also changed loot spawn in a car, now I'm not purposefully exploiting using alt F4's just logging out as normal.

I walked to commuters lament from Quonset, something came up, logged out and returned later and got a flare instead of some old cloth from the car.

Have to wonder if it would make more sense to save on exit rather than lose progress if you can re-roll certain elements...

[elloco999]

The question if the game should save on exit has been brought up before. And it may be done for the final release, but while we're still in alpha it makes sense to give players a way out of bugs like getting trapped under the terrain (falling through the terrain), things like that. Getting stuck in the terrain if you're 300 days is no joke. Now you can exit and reload and at least you can continue from the last save.

[cekivi]

9 hours ago, illanthropist said:

I found out by accident, you can change the weather!

Recently when was going stalking a bear spawn I headed out from base in heavy snow but not too cold, got bored and logged out instead of returning to trappers cabin.

On my next log in, although the weather was the same when leaving the cabin, unlike before it cleared up in no time.

This also changed loot spawn in a car, now I'm not purposefully exploiting using alt F4's just logging out as normal.

I walked to commuters lament from Quonset, something came up, logged out and returned later and got a flare instead of some old cloth from the car.

Have to wonder if it would make more sense to save on exit rather than lose progress if you can re-roll certain elements...

An old problem with the Long Dark with some people for and against changing the current save system. I'm mostly ambivalent. For instance, since the game doesn't have a tutorial I can muck around to my heart's content practicing things (e.g. archery) and, once my arrows and bow are destroyed exit and not lose anything. However, the system can also be exploited. Either way, pros and cons.

16 hours ago, Vhalkyrie said:

No joke!  I've lived in PV 45 days (out of 75 total), and I'm eager to get out of here.  The multi-day blizzards (at least in my game) are maddening.

I'm really eager to move into the Lodge.  I know that it's a bit drafty in there, but I am wanting to try it!

Yeah, the multi-day blizzards are not fun. Still, Pleasant Valley is my personal favourite map. It has lots to offer in terms of resources and it is usually easy to keep yourself feed on deer. The farmhouse is also an excellent shelter provided you're prepared to spend a few days indoors.

16 hours ago, SEAplane said:

Agree with cekivi.  I've never had to spend a full day inside up on TM.  It's not as scary as it sounds.  I find PV the hardest place to live and cold to boot.

For more Timberwolf weather I was playing and the wind died down completely but the sky was dark grey and moving fast. Even with 5 hours of daylight left it looked like dusk outside! Then the temperature started dropping (from -5 to -10 in minutes) and light snow started falling. Within a short amount of time (1-2 hours in game?) the sky turned yellow and a full blizzard was raging! And it was completely gone by the morning

The weather can be terrible and it will kill you if you can't find shelter but the weather does change fast enough that you can survive. Just be prepared for high winds and bitterly cold nights.

[Drifter Man]

I've been trying to track weather but so far I haven't found any pattern. However, at least the air temperature is easy to figure out. The lowest point (usually between -20 and -30°C) is exactly at dawn, when "hours of darkness" change into "hours of daylight". The highest temperature is exactly when "6 hours of daylight left" turns into "5 hours of daylight left". Between these two points the temperature follows a straight line in time - a sawtooth pattern. The only exception are blizzards, which reduce current air temperature by 10°C.

[Vhalkyrie]

@Drifter ManVery nice!  Thanks for sharing!

I have noticed that it's best if I don't go outside for extended chores (chopping logs, skin rabbits, etc) until '10 hours til daylight'.  At that point, I usually won't get a warmth drop.  Thanks for confirming it with data!

[cekivi]

Thanks for sharing the info! And I've also noticed that pattern.

[K63]

On 3/21/2016 at 4:11 AM, illanthropist said:

I walked to commuters lament from Quonset, something came up, logged out and returned later and got a flare instead of some old cloth from the car.

Have to wonder if it would make more sense to save on exit rather than lose progress if you can re-roll certain elements...

My experience is that most of the time the items remain the same when I log back in after a save.

 

I like the discussion about weather patterns in the game. Perhaps it would be worth looking at different types of clouds, color of the sky (red sky at night) or changes in wind direction for clues to changing weather. So far I have not looked too closely, but I will start paying closer attention. 

[Recoil911]

Most of the times i can hear the wind incoming through the majestic sound system that the devs have crafted in the game. I knew of the birds flying away. Don't know if it's always a storm or just a generic "Weather's changing from what it's like right now". 

Anybody here that mistakes the wolf howling for wind blowing through woods? I swear that it's very similar. Or maybe i just need to go and check my ears

[hauteecolerider]

4 hours ago, Recoil911 said:

Most of the times i can hear the wind incoming through the majestic sound system that the devs have crafted in the game. I knew of the birds flying away. Don't know if it's always a storm or just a generic "Weather's changing from what it's like right now". 

Anybody here that mistakes the wolf howling for wind blowing through woods? I swear that it's very similar. Or maybe i just need to go and check my ears

Not me.

But when I'm in the Dam, sometimes I hear Fluffy growling. It's just the rusty old machinery groaning. But I still look around for Dam Fluffy. 

[Recoil911]

14 hours ago, hauteecolerider said:

Not me.

But when I'm in the Dam, sometimes I hear Fluffy growling. It's just the rusty old machinery groaning. But I still look around for Dam Fluffy. 
 

Is there just a fluffy in the Dam or the maps hide another fluffy somewhere in a building? I've never been to DP or TWM so i don't know what they hide from me

First time i entered the dam i didn't find him. But back at the time i read that there was a chance of it spawning,other times he wouldn't be there. Imagine my surprise when i entered the second time. It gave me an heart attack. 

[cekivi]

5 hours ago, Recoil911 said:

Is there just a fluffy in the Dam or the maps hide another fluffy somewhere in a building? I've never been to DP or TWM so i don't know what they hide from me

First time i entered the dam i didn't find him. But back at the time i read that there was a chance of it spawning,other times he wouldn't be there. Imagine my surprise when i entered the second time. It gave me an heart attack. 

Fluffy is never in the Dam on Pilgrim, is randomly in the Dam on Voyager and - while I haven't tested it personally - has a high if not guaranteed chance of being in the Dam on Stalker.

[Scyzara]

1 hour ago, cekivi said:

Fluffy is never in the Dam on Pilgrim, is randomly in the Dam on Voyager and - while I haven't tested it personally - has a high if not guaranteed chance of being in the Dam on Stalker.

I've never played a game where Fluffy wasn't inside the dam, so I'm pretty sure he's a guaranteed spawn on Stalker. 

[JAFO]

On 27/04/2016 at 2:25 AM, Recoil911 said:

Anybody here that mistakes the wolf howling for wind blowing through woods? I swear that it's very similar. Or maybe i just need to go and check my ears

No.. but more often than not, I still momentarily mistake my stomach growling for a wolf.