Speedy parasites

[chuckie]

Howdy survivors!

It's the second time I get intestinal parasites on interloper with only 1% chance. Is't that too much? I always eat only one peace of wolf meat and wait 2 days for the affliction to heal. Thus I always have only 1% risk. Nearly on the tenth iteration parasites visit me. It is because of loper? Or maybe that's something with the indication and the real risk is greater, or it's cumulative despite the affliction heals?

Appreciate your opinions.

[ArmagedDan]

It's just the roll of the dice.  1% is not zero percent, unfortunately: you just got hit sooner rather than later.

[L²]

Just remember the age old saying, "That which doesn't kill you...likely will leave you weak enough for the next thing to kill you."  Oh wait, that doesn't sound quite right...but it's true! 

[TWM]

33 minutes ago, nicko said:

ha i see a lot of peeps playing interloper game mode complaining. Nothing wrong with that. but sheesh. it's like they ask it to be be hard ass,then they complain it's to hard ass game play?

The original poster is right in one respect, though: a 1% chance of contracting intestinal parasites is far, far removed from a 1 in 10 chance of contracting parasites.

Now obviously, I haven't kept score, so I have no way of knowing whether his experience is just some kind of terrible luck or whether it is by design. But it's worth looking into, because if he's correct in his hunch the odds might be stacked considerably more unfavorable in Interloper, an indication of a 1% chance might be somewhat misleading if the odds are indeed way higher.

But as said, I haven't kept score, so I have no way of knowing whether or not his hunch is correct. You'd have to play a fair number of runs on Interloper and keep track to be sure.

[Dirmagnos]

Im pretty sure that parasite calculation mechanic was changed in this update. For the worst.

Prior to FC update i ate one piece of meat in the morning and one in the evening, totaling at 4% and chance to infection was seemingly actual 4%(or 1%). As extremely rare.

But now, while numbers shows are same, im pretty sure they are bullshit. It feels that its more like 10% and 30-50%, rather than 1% and 4%. Infection rate is far far far higher than before.

In one game, in 40 days i had 3 parasite infections. 1 from 1% chance and 2 from 4% chance. All within 2 days after starting eating carnivore meat.

As existence of this rather absurd feature was not bad enough, it becomes even worse by the update. So either numbers are wrong or chance calculation changed significantly, like it became progressive in some way.

[chuckie]

17 hours ago, nicko said:

ha i see a lot of peeps playing interloper game mode complaining

I'm not complaining. I enjoy that ))) Just was curious about the numbers.

Gathered a pile of mushrooms and eat every wolf coming close.

[Crimson Foxx]

I have found that i now do my very best to avoid any carnivore meat. I know at times there is little option as your starving and just shot a wolf and passing up that meat is a hard decision. But i would rather avoid the 10 day infection where i have to find enough antibiotics ( pill or mushroom) to heal. It stunts your speed, fatigue and punishes you with research ability etc.

But you know, i dont mind. This is maybe exactly what Hinterland is trying to achieve. That decision making. Do you risk the meat or risk starving? make the call. Decide, prepare :). 

The percentage is a little confusing as i understand 1% is always a chance more than 0%. But to me 1% is a very very low chance. even 25% could be a gamble but a chance of 1 in 4 of getting it. At the moment its al;most dangerous to eat carnivore meat at all.

I struggle enough working out what yellow percentage of regular found food is safe LOL. i see a can of peaches at 24% and i am umming and aaahing. do i? do i risk it?

[chuckie]

Imaging the pain of choosing in interloper, where food is scarce and affliction requires 20 doses to cure with bigger penalties.

[JAFO]

I'm wondering if maybe the dice on that 1% chance is now being rolled every hour, instead of once or twice a day, or something like that. Because that's one way the odds could be altered, without it looking like they've been altered.

[MueckE]

Before Interloper, i've eaten wolfmeat only and only once got parasites. Than i got it once playing Interloper and there it was not worth the risk (at least before you have a good base).

There is more behind that than just "rolling the dice" because you would basicly never get parasites like that. Someone here in the forum made the argument that mathematicly the chance goes up although it's always just 1% (depending on how often you eat). So lets say you eat wolfmeat only - every two days 1Kg, than at some day the "real, mathematic" chance would be 100%.

Now are we talking about lots and lots of days (years) were this would have an impact, so there has to be more to it than just 1%.

My physics teacher once said that the chance is higher that a modern PC will create itself in space than human life. It's not so important who does what, important here is that you can calculate the propability that a PC is creating itself. Although this chance is extremely low, but by the 1%-logic and the billions of years the universe exists, this already should've happen.

Maybe i'm wrong, but this makes me believe that there is more to it than just 1%.

[Thrasador]

On Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 1:52 PM, Dirmagnos said:

Im pretty sure that parasite calculation mechanic was changed in this update. For the worst.

Prior to FC update i ate one piece of meat in the morning and one in the evening, totaling at 4% and chance to infection was seemingly actual 4%(or 1%). As extremely rare.

But now, while numbers shows are same, im pretty sure they are bullshit. It feels that its more like 10% and 30-50%, rather than 1% and 4%. Infection rate is far far far higher than before.

In one game, in 40 days i had 3 parasite infections. 1 from 1% chance and 2 from 4% chance. All within 2 days after starting eating carnivore meat.

As existence of this rather absurd feature was not bad enough, it becomes even worse by the update. So either numbers are wrong or chance calculation changed significantly, like it became progressive in some way.

I have read something like this in several different places like the Steam forum for the game and maybe a reddit...

A lot of people seem to have complained about frequently getting parasites with a 1% chance, so it is most likely borked...or another stealth nerf

[Renegade30]

In my experience with interloper I have not gotten parasites provided i don't exceed 4% chance, but its just a risk calculation anyway. Some people have bad luck...

EDIT

I just jinxed myself. I got Intestinal parasites while I was hunting bear no.2 in interloper. Had to abandon it and check my stores at my base camp in the camp office. I need 7 extra reishi teas (for a total of 20!) so I decide to go to the ravine. On the way I stop by carter dam to warm up, when I step in I notice some things I left there when I looted it last and I take some useful stuff and I notice a water I left there so I drink it up without a second thought. Great now I have dysentery too... haha

[Drifter Man]

The probability of getting parasites at least once (with 1% chance per each attempt) are 9.5% in 10 attempts; 18.2% in 20 attempts; and 39.5% in 50 attempts.

[Thrasador]

1 hour ago, Drifter Man said:

The probability of getting parasites at least once (with 1% chance per each attempt) are 9.5% in 10 attempts; 18.2% in 20 attempts; and 39.5% in 50 attempts.

So what are you saying then the 1% chance actually behaves as a 10% chance?

If so, the 1% chance is very misleading...

[Drifter Man]

1 hour ago, Thrasador said:

So what are you saying then the 1% chance actually behaves as a 10% chance?

If so, the 1% chance is very misleading...

I don't think it's misleading, it's the normal way to express the probability of something happening. If you have a 1% chance of getting into an accident each morning you drive your car to work, it accumulates into 9.5% chance of getting into an accident at least once if you drive every morning for 10 days.

Repeating a dangerous action is cumulatively more dangerous than doing it just once.

[Thrasador]

3 minutes ago, Drifter Man said:

I don't think it's misleading, it's the normal way to express the probability of something happening. If you have a 1% chance of getting into an accident each morning you drive your car to work, it accumulates into 9.5% chance of getting into an accident at least once if you drive every morning for 10 days.

Repeating a dangerous action is cumulatively more dangerous than doing it just once.

That's not really how statistics and percentages work. A 1% chance is just that, 1% or 1 in 100 times. It's 1 in a 100 no matter how many times you do it. 

Your tests show that the 1% chance is actually 10% chance. That IS misleading...if it is really a 1 in 10 chance instead of a 1 in 100 chance, they should just say that. Someone misplaced the decimal point when coding obviously....

Probably should be bug reported if you get parasites 1 time out of 10 attempts at a 1% chance of getting them....

[Drifter Man]

1 hour ago, Thrasador said:

That's not really how statistics and percentages work. A 1% chance is just that, 1% or 1 in 100 times. It's 1 in a 100 no matter how many times you do it. 

Your tests show that the 1% chance is actually 10% chance. That IS misleading...if it is really a 1 in 10 chance instead of a 1 in 100 chance, they should just say that. Someone misplaced the decimal point when coding obviously....

Probably should be bug reported if you get parasites 1 time out of 10 attempts at a 1% chance of getting them....

We may be misunderstanding each other. My numbers aren't a test, they are a calculation of the probability of getting parasites at least once when you expose yourself to that same risk repeatedly.

In the first attempt, the chance of getting parasites is 0.01.

If you do the same thing twice, the chance of getting parasites at least once during these two attempts is 0.01 + (1-0.01)*0.01 = 0.0199 (a bit less than 2%).

Over three attempts, it's 0.01 + (1-0.01)*0.01 + (1-(0.01 + (1-0.01)*0.01))*0.01 = 0.0297 (a bit less than 3%).

And so on. I each individual instance, the player still has a 1% chance of getting parasites. But when doing it ten times over, the probability of it happening at least once is not 1%, it's almost 10% as could be reasonably expected. So if @chuckie got parasites after 10 wolf steaks eaten over 20 days, he was unlucky but that's it. Now, if everyone was getting parasites after 10 wolf steaks over 20 days, that would be a bug.

[Thrasador]

Yeah, I have no idea what you are doing then. I thought you were running tests like Timberwolf and struggles.

You are just doing math out loud then?

Ok, I never liked math so have fun with that...

[Drifter Man]

Yes, just doing math out loud.

[selfless]

Probability is fun.  Another way of thinking about it is: you have a 99% chance of not getting parasites.  Every time.  

Every chance is still a 1% chance of failure, but because you chanced it more than one time, and it only takes one time to fail, there is a greater likelihood that you'll end up failing.  So surviving 10 chances is like .99(.99(.99(.99(.99(.99(.99(.99(.99(.99))))))))) or a 90.4% chance of success.

If you keep rolling the dice, eventually it's going to come up snake eyes.  Maybe soon, maybe takes a while (maybe twice in a row), but odds say it will eventually happen.  Unless you actually quit before it does 

[Renegade30]

Thanks Drifter Man. But...

 

[Scyzara]

I really wish school books would put a way bigger emphasis on statistics during middle school education than they currently do.

Would be way more helpful for society to give everyone some basic understanding about data analysis and risk management than teaching everyone how to do trigonometry or calculate logarithms (both of which 90% of the people will never ever have deal with in their daily lives. And those 10% who do could also easily learn it later at high school/professional training/university). 

[JAFO]

7 hours ago, Scyzara said:

I really wish school books would put a way bigger emphasis on statistics during middle school education than they currently do.

Would be way more helpful for society to give everyone some basic understanding about data analysis and risk management than teaching everyone how to do trigonometry or calculate logarithms (both of which 90% of the people will never ever have deal with in their daily lives. And those 10% who do could also easily learn it later at high school/professional training/university). 

The problem with that is, there are some major business models that rely on ordinary people being bad at such things. If the above happened, you'd kill some hugely profitable industries. And that, in part, is why schools will never do that.

[MueckE]

On 16.7.2017 at 4:14 AM, Drifter Man said:

The probability of getting parasites at least once (with 1% chance per each attempt) are 9.5% in 10 attempts; 18.2% in 20 attempts; and 39.5% in 50 attempts.

This is what i meant. Math i nothing if you can't interpret it properly. In 2012, 43 million cars were registered in germany and the chance to die in that year in a car accident was 0.01%. This means that half the population of germany will die in car accidents (40% chance) within 50 years.

Like i said, you actually can calculate the properbility that something like a modern PC creates itself in space - if the chance goes up over time it will go towards 100% at some point - so by that logic everything will happen as long you can calculate it. This is not how reality works.

 

[selfless]

 

@MueckE Say you have a coin. And you estimate that flipping that coin there is a 50% chance of it resting on "heads". And you flip it. And it lands on heads. Does that effect the chance of it landing on heads the next time you flip it?  No.

The chance of it landing on heads is always the same.  If you flipped it 50 times, and every time it came up heads, the next time you flipped it, it could still come up heads yet again.  

But if we look at the possibilities, the possible outcomes, of those 50 flips there was only one chain of events that allows for all of them to come up heads.  There were 50 possibilities that just one of those flips came up "tails" instead.  There were actually 1,125,899,906,842,624 possible outcomes in total (one of which was the reverse: 50 tails).  You experienced one.  The likelihood of your repeating that sequence of events is probably 1/1,125,888,906,842,624 because every one has an equal chance of occuring.

Likewise, the chance you are experiencing the possibility in which you never get parasites becomes less likely every time you end a day in which you ate one piece of tainted meat.  After only 50 days, not getting any parasites is already a 1 in 1,125,888,906,842,624 possibility.  Just with better odds (cuz 99% vs 50%).