How long until the weather in TLD is a wild fantasy?


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And the realists start screaming for no snow or ice? Seriously though, when the surface air temperature at the north pole starts getting above 0°C in the middle of winter, it makes you wonder.

Just can't wait for more permafrost to melt in the northern hemisphere and release all that methane. (When compared to carbon dioxide, methane is eighty plus times more potent as a greenhouse gas over a twenty year span and amusingly, eventually decays into carbon dioxide.)

If half a billion tons of methane is released into the atmosphere every year from all sources, it's a bit of a worry when people talk about the "abrupt release" of fifty billion tons of methane hydrates from permafrost being highly possible at any time. This will be the equivalent of the release of more than seven billion tons of methane.

It's a few minutes to midnight and sitting in my room the temperature is 30°C. It ain't right. But what's really disturbing is how cool it feels compared to tomorrow..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/01/beyond-the-extreme-scientists-marvel-at-increasingly-non-natural-arctic-warmth/

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/comment-crazy-times-arctic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

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We used to have 3 feet of snow at multiple times in the winter where I live, and severe ice storms just before spring. Now, its been 5 years and the staus quo hasnt been met.

Plus, remember how last year the iditarod required snow to be imported by train cause there wasnt enough?!

Although snowfall amounts doesnt directly indicate global warming, it does show that water distribution is changing too. Which could be a side effect of it.

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On 06/02/2017 at 2:35 AM, MarrowStone said:

We used to have 3 feet of snow at multiple times in the winter where I live, and severe ice storms just before spring. Now, its been 5 years and the staus quo hasnt been met.

Plus, remember how last year the iditarod required snow to be imported by train cause there wasnt enough?!

Although snowfall amounts doesnt directly indicate global warming, it does show that water distribution is changing too. Which could be a side effect of it.

I had to look up "iditarod". Sounds awesome. Maybe not so much for the dogs but I wouldn't know.

For most of my life the weather here was "normal" and fairly predictable. In '87 I started hang gliding and by necessity started to notice more about the weather than I had in the past. Around '96 or'97 we began to experience drought conditions. The difference I saw in the troposphere was profound. Even when winds were blowing onshore and which would usually be expected to carry the moisture required for rain and storms, a constant offshore wind, which before this would only be seen at a high altitude (think 30,000+ feet in the summer), was blowing at 3,000, 4,000 or 5,000 feet. Besides being thrown about a lot whenever I thermalled up through this wind shear, it meant that very little moisture was carried inland and even when storms began to form, they were quickly ripped apart.

The drought lasted for the next fifteen years. It was a very depressing time.

In the years since I have seen in my area:
- one major flood. This is in contrast to the only other period in recorded history here following such a long drought where bad flooding occurred every one or two years for the next decade.
- a cyclone. Only a cat 1 but scary anyway. It ripped a lot of roofs off and left most with no power. We were lucky to have power restored four days later but only by virtue of someone here making a suicide threat to the electricity company. This is the only time I have ever seen a cyclone this far south on the coast. The next closest was 400km north of here, 40+ years ago.
- a new record high temp of 45°C. In the outback (which is most of Australia) this kind of temperature is not that rare but is usually associated with low humidity and I find that it is about as comfortable as 35°C in the humid conditions found in proximity (100km) to the coast where most Australians live - myself included. So 45°C here is pretty unbearable.

This summer has been particularly relentless. Normally we would expect some cool changes to move through and drop the maximums into the high twenties for a few days or a week at a time. This hasn't happened and even though I know March will probably be just as bad, I'm counting the days until the end of February.

Most people I talk to these days use air-conditioning in their houses or bedrooms but I have always refused to do it because firstly, most of our power comes from coal fired power plants which are exacerbating the problem and secondly, by acclimating to the heat I can continue to work while others literally fall down beside me.

I think that the last twenty years have shown me that "normal" just doesn't exist anymore but it seems that if I want things to change then apart from altering my own habits, the most (and least) I can do is talk about it and hope that one day a "critical mass" of opinion will be reached.

And, oh joy. Next Saturday and Sunday are forecast to hit 40°C.

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@mystifeid, the dogs are bred for it, most working class dogs find physical activity to be fun. Plus, those who dogsled are like dog whisperers, they take super good care of their dogs. Im sure the iditarod causes some injury and exhaustion among the group, but it certainly seems better and more natural for the dog than making them lay around all day in a house. Dogsleds have been used for many many years.

Also, you're right, not only is it warming up, but more noticeable is the changing water distribution as a result of it. 

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4 minutes ago, MarrowStone said:

the dogs are bred for it, most working class dogs find physical activity to be fun. Plus, those who dogsled are like dog whisperers, they take super good care of their dogs. Im sure the iditarod causes some injury and exhaustion among the group, but it certainly seems better and more natural for the dog than making them lay around all day in a house. Dogsleds have been used for many many years.

I suspected as much. Does this race pass anywhere near where you live?

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1 hour ago, mystifeid said:

I suspected as much. Does this race pass anywhere near where you live?

Sadly, no, I live in the boring Midwest, where nothing exciting happens except State Fairs and haunted barns. 

Ive always wanted to visit/live in Alaska though. 

The history of the iditarod is pretty interesting by the way, it starts with a diptheria outbreak in Nome.

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31 minutes ago, MarrowStone said:

Sadly, no, I live in the boring Midwest, where nothing exciting happens except State Fairs and haunted barns

Yeah I think I grew up in a place like that or worse.

 

32 minutes ago, MarrowStone said:

Ive always wanted to visit/live in Alaska though.

So go. At least for a visit. Make a plan to do it soon.You never know what's around the corner...

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10 hours ago, mystifeid said:

For most of my life the weather here was "normal" and fairly predictable.

It was once like this in Minnesota, as well.  The winters we had when I was a kid, back in the late 70's and early 80s, were long, cold and filled with snow.  It's nothing like that any more.  Sure, we still get a brutally cold winter here and a snow filled winter there - but overall it has become much more mild.  Having a snowstorm around Halloween didn't used to be unusual, nowadays it's unusual to see snow before December.  This year we aren't even really having winter, it's been more like a chilly autumn.

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1 hour ago, Timber Wolf said:

It was once like this in Minnesota, as well.  The winters we had when I was a kid, back in the late 70's and early 80s, were long, cold and filled with snow.  It's nothing like that any more.  Sure, we still get a brutally cold winter here and a snow filled winter there - but overall it has become much more mild.  Having a snowstorm around Halloween didn't used to be unusual, nowadays it's unusual to see snow before December.  This year we aren't even really having winter, it's been more like a chilly autumn.

Ok so "Timber Wolf" starts making a bit more sense now. Do you like basketball?

They cancelled winter here some years ago. We just go straight from autumn to spring. T-shirt weather all year round.

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6 minutes ago, mystifeid said:

Ok so "Timber Wolf" starts making a bit more sense now. Do you like basketball?

I generally like all sports.  Unfortunately, the Timberwolves haven't been a relevant basketball team in a long time.

I go by Timber Wolf, because I just really love wolves.  The first time I saw a timber wolf up close was at a small zoo in a local park that was comprised of animals native to Minnesota.  When I walked up to the cage I was immediately surprised by how big it was.  The whole time I stood there, it did the same thing.  It paced back and forth, from one end of the cage to the other.  Staring out beyond me and beyond everyone else that was around.  It seemed very angry and I'm pretty sure it was angry about being caged.  It may not have been able to exactly understand it's situation, but it knew it was wrong and it knew it wanted to be free.  It was very sad.

On the other hand, I love seeing wolves in their natural environment doing their thing!  I am just memorized by them.  I grew up around dogs, so that's probably why I like wolves so much.  Of all the dogs I've known, my favorite was a guy named Shadow.  He was 1/4 wolf, and it showed.  I've never heard or seen a dog howl like that and he was much more intelligent than any other dog I've been around.  There was something about the way he would look at me, I could tell there was more going on there than in other dogs.

If I should have another life, I'm hoping I get to be a wolf.  ;)

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1 hour ago, Timber Wolf said:

I go by Timber Wolf, because I just really love wolves.  The first time I saw a timber wolf up close was at a small zoo in a local park that was comprised of animals native to Minnesota.  When I walked up to the cage I was immediately surprised by how big it was.  The whole time I stood there, it did the same thing.  It paced back and forth, from one end of the cage to the other.  Staring out beyond me and beyond everyone else that was around.  It seemed very angry and I'm pretty sure it was angry about being caged.  It may not have been able to exactly understand it's situation, but it knew it was wrong and it knew it wanted to be free.  It was very sad.

On the other hand, I love seeing wolves in their natural environment doing their thing!  I am just memorized by them.  I grew up around dogs, so that's probably why I like wolves so much.  Of all the dogs I've known, my favorite was a guy named Shadow.  He was 1/4 wolf, and it showed.  I've never heard or seen a dog howl like that and he was much more intelligent than any other dog I've been around.  There was something about the way he would look at me, I could tell there was more going on there than in other dogs.

Wow, that is sad. I've had similar experiences. There might be some good reasons for having zoos - I just don't know what they are. And you have unleashed such a torrent of memories, feelings and thought that it's hard to respond further without writing much, much more.

But you still have wolves running around in the wild? Are they a protected species or are they hunted? Aren't they shy? Where do you go to see them?

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Yeah, wolves are great. Id want to be one too. I had a 1/8th wolfdog named Ike, I miss him a lot. Saddest family member death I've ever experienced. 

Ive been to a small zoo with a mountain lion who was in the same situation. Pacing around in a small cage looking upset.

My most memorable zoo moment was with a polar bear though. I was really young and there was a glass wall that was half submerged seperating us and him. I put my hand up to the glass and he swam up to me and placed his paw so my hand was right in the center. And he just looked right at me as I stood there amazed. 

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7 minutes ago, mystifeid said:

But you still have wolves running around in the wild? Are they a protected species or are they hunted?

As of 2014, they are protected by the Endangered Species Act.  They can only be legally killed in defense of human life.  Here is a map of where the approximately 2,500 wolves live in Minnesota:

wolfrange2013.jpg

12 minutes ago, mystifeid said:

Where do you go to see them?

For the most part, I've just seen them on film or in zoos.  But your question prompted me to investigate a little and I just found the International Wolf Center up near the Canada border.  Their website even has a live cam.  I might have to check that place out.  :)

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Yeah, we don't have a shortage of wolves in Canada. I could sometimes hear a pack from my house in Northern Ontario. There's actually enough to sustain a hunting season for them.

As for the original topic today is February 7th, 2017. It should be winter. It is currently freezing rain in Toronto and there is little to no snow in the actual city. It's just weird

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10 hours ago, MarrowStone said:

My most memorable zoo moment was with a polar bear though. I was really young and there was a glass wall that was half submerged seperating us and him. I put my hand up to the glass and he swam up to me and placed his paw so my hand was right in the center. And he just looked right at me as I stood there amazed.

This is the sort of experience that you hope you will have under different circumstances but when it happens you can never forget it and it can change your life forever.

Unfortunately, for polar bears the future may not be so great. You may wish to take the time to read this IUCN assessment.

http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0

10 hours ago, Timber Wolf said:

But your question prompted me to investigate a little and I just found the International Wolf Center up near the Canada border.  Their website even has a live cam.  I might have to check that place out.

This looks more like my kind of zoo although you would think that 1.25 acres is still a small enclosure for a wolf pack. (It's very hard to be sure because it was night when I checked the stream but it looked like there was one curled up asleep on the snow in the open). They look like they have some good programs. I wouldn't mind sneaking onto the "Wine, Women and Wolves" weekend. Dog sledding too.

6 hours ago, cekivi said:

Yeah, we don't have a shortage of wolves in Canada. I could sometimes hear a pack from my house in Northern Ontario. There's actually enough to sustain a hunting season for them.

As for the original topic today is February 7th, 2017. It should be winter. It is currently freezing rain in Toronto and there is little to no snow in the actual city. It's just weird

Wait, your house is in northern Ontario? Isn't Toronto in the south? That looks like a hell of a commute.

So you hear wolves but don't see them? And what is the point in hunting them? Is it sport or trophy hunting or "population management". Surely no-one eats wolf meat?

And if it's getting above zero at the north pole I'm not in the least surprised that anyone is finding winter to be different this year. Just so long as the Hudson Bay is still frozen over. It is isn't it? Do you ever go out ice fishing on the bay or are there polar bears out there?

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@mystifeid, sadly the next time I arrived at the zoo the bear wasnt there because he was deceased, but the moment really did change my life like you suggested. 

Yes I am well aware that polar bears need the ice to hunt seal and travel and are dying out due to a lack of it. However, all hope is not lost, there has been suspicion among researchers as to whether they're crossbreeding with grizzlies, and it seems to be true, so if they do go extinct, their genetic signatures may be preserved in a population of hybrids. Which is not 100 percent bad like a total die-off. Still a tragedy though that my favourite animal may go extinct.

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14 hours ago, mystifeid said:

Wait, your house is in northern Ontario? Isn't Toronto in the south? That looks like a hell of a commute.

So you hear wolves but don't see them? And what is the point in hunting them? Is it sport or trophy hunting or "population management". Surely no-one eats wolf meat?

And if it's getting above zero at the north pole I'm not in the least surprised that anyone is finding winter to be different this year. Just so long as the Hudson Bay is still frozen over. It is isn't it? Do you ever go out ice fishing on the bay or are there polar bears out there?

House I grew up in is in Northern Ontario ;)

And if I remember correctly it's partially population management and for the furs. My Mom has a picture of a half dozen wolf pelts drying with my great uncle standing in front of them back when there was a bounty for wolves.

And sadly I've never been to Hudson Bay. With the exception of Churchill Manitoba there's not really any road access to it. Plus sea ice is very different from lake ice. A few weeks of -10 and the inland lakes will freeze enough to safely fish on. My favourite lake to fish on was actually a 30 minute walk from my childhood house. :)

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It is expected to be so hot in New South Wales this weekend that demand will exceed power generation capacity and result in load shedding and rolling blackouts. It is likely that it will still be a tad warm when this happens.

Glad I'm not a cockroach. (For the uninitiated this is a reference to a citizen of NSW).

Meanwhile, the sandgropers (citizens of Western Australia) yesterday had their second wettest day on record in Perth.

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  • 2 weeks later...

This is the headline I've been both expecting and dreading to see. Looks like mitigation from the ozone hole may no longer be enough to protect Antarctica.

As Australia scorches, sea ice spread around Antarctica hits a record low

Warmer oceans also provide another undesirable consequence.

Oceans are losing oxygen, posing growing threats to marine life, research says

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