Snowballs in Hell

[JAFO]

Just now, Hotzn said:

In the given scenario, I think a fire will be needed anyway to harvest meat. Since the carcass will thus thaw the saw would only be needed to save some time.

Good point.. I keep forgetting how brutal Interloper temperatures are.

[Drifter Man]

10 minutes ago, JAFO said:

Was this a good move? I mean, the hacksaw is your primary means of harvesting frozen meat, yes? Wouldn't it have been better to use the last piece of scrap metal to fix the hacksaw, then harvest the tools for scrap, and make fish hooks from that? Or is it that you calculate that fish will figure much more prominently than venison in the days to come?

I'm pretty sure it was a good move. My hacksaw is at 24%, so I can harvest 3-4 deer before there is a chance it might break. Since deer appear once in 15 days, the hacksaw is very likely to outlive me. Whether I will need the three extra hooks is questionable, but there is much greater uncertainty in the rate at which fishing lines break than in hacksaw degradation. Anyway, I had to make a decision.

7 minutes ago, Hotzn said:

In the given scenario, I think a fire will be needed anyway to harvest meat. Since the carcass will thus thaw the saw would only be needed to save some time.

I've always used fire to harvest deer carcasses on the lake. To take maximum advantage of the hacksaw, I always let the carcass freeze, usually overnight. Then I come to it, start the fire and harvest all meat with the hacksaw in one go, before the carcass can thaw. After that I get the hide and guts with my hands if conditions permit. The hacksaw is very important - based on my previous experience, I would be able to get only half of the meat if I used bare hands.

[Drifter Man]

15 minutes ago, Hotzn said:

Yep, that one percent is likely to have been added either between the point in time you last checked and then finally going to sleep or between waking up and checking again. My further theory is that the chance of contracting cabin fever is tried the first time at 24 hours after the risk arose. So if you manage to reduce cabin fever risk to 0% within the first 24 hours, you should be safe from getting it. Not so important now that you have a way to deal with it even if you get it.

Agree - but the risk would appear the next day anyway. I'll be in the fishing hut

[Drifter Man]

12 minutes ago, JAFO said:

Good point.. I keep forgetting how brutal Interloper temperatures are.

That last picture I posted should remind you

[JAFO]

28 minutes ago, Drifter Man said:

My hacksaw is at 24%, so I can harvest 3-4 deer before there is a chance it might break.

The hacksaw's breaking threshold is 25%.. it could break on you at any time. 

[Drifter Man]

1 hour ago, JAFO said:

The hacksaw's breaking threshold is 25%.. it could break on you at any time. 

Wow... I had no idea  I thought all items had a breaking threshold at 20%.

In that case I should have repaired the hacksaw. Fortunately, it probably isn't a critical mistake - I do not rely on venison anymore. The deer timetable predicts the next deer arriving on Days 97, 112, 127 and 142. For the first three, it is OK even if I can't harvest them fully. By the time the fourth one arrives, I will already be stiff.

[Ruruwawa]

3 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

I've just made an observation that fits your theory very well. I went to bed with 19% cabin fever risk and woke up 10 hours later with 20%.

Is this really the explanation?  Hinterland have told us that CF is based on the previous six days, and it's observable in-game too.  Maybe that influences the exact risk percentage, too.  In other words, any given CF risk % corresponds to a specific proportion of indoor : outdoor hours.

Just a theory I can't prove because I have very little CF experience.  But when I have seen it that big spike of indoor time due to crafting or days of nonstop blizzards has been a very major factor.   Craft again within the 6 day window and I'm fighting the risk.  But if I wait until it slips outside of the 6 day window, I can craft with impunity.

2 hours ago, JAFO said:

Was this a good move? 

Personally I'm more worried about the hammer.  A lucky tackle might last for months, but the timer is ticking down on the hammer.  I'd use that fir to repair the hammer before salvaging metal from the tools.

[Ruruwawa]

2 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

That last picture I posted should remind you

Very brutal!  What were the circumstances?  Outside in the wind, completely naked?  Or were you clothed?

[Drifter Man]

@Ruruwawa it was in a blizzard and I went outside to start a fire in the fishing hut precisely at dawn when the temperatures are lowest. I was naked to prevent damage to clothes. The 12°C/7°C bonus wouldn't make much of a difference anyway.

So far I haven't recorded air temperature lower than -50°C. Additional -10°C comes from the blizzard. The conditions you see in the picture might be close the the lowest temperatures achievable in TLD.

[Ruruwawa]

1 minute ago, Drifter Man said:

@Ruruwawa it was in a blizzard and I went outside to start a fire in the fishing hut precisely at dawn when the temperatures are lowest. I was naked to prevent damage to clothes. The 12°C/7°C bonus wouldn't make much of a difference anyway.

So far I haven't recorded air temperature lower than -50°C. Additional -10°C comes from the blizzard. The conditions you see in the picture might be close the the lowest temperatures achievable in TLD.

Gotcha.  I've never seen temps this low myself!

[Drifter Man]

2 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

Gotcha.  I've never seen temps this low myself!

It could still be worse. Oxygen in the air should begin to liquefy at -183°C. Until then, I can run naked around the lake.

[Drifter Man]

41 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

Is this really the explanation?  Hinterland have told us that CF is based on the previous six days, and it's observable in-game too.  Maybe that influences the exact risk percentage, too.  In other words, any given CF risk % corresponds to a specific proportion of indoor : outdoor hours.

It's just one observation. I didn't pay enough attention to it before. But it's possible that the time you sleep is not included in the indoor/outdoor ratio for cabin fever, or it is treated so as not to change the risk percentage.

41 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

Personally I'm more worried about the hammer.  A lucky tackle might last for months, but the timer is ticking down on the hammer.  I'd use that fir to repair the hammer before salvaging metal from the tools.

The hammer lost about 30% condition since the beginning of the game. I don't think it will get below 30%, still way above the breaking threshold... I don't want to use time and a piece of firewood unless I need it. You're right though that loss of the hammer would be a death sentence (with about 20 or 30 day timer on it because I'm pretty well supplied).

Do I need tools to repair the hammer? I thought I could do it without them...

[Ruruwawa]

On 7/26/2017 at 4:35 AM, Drifter Man said:

I went to bed with about 35% risk: when I woke up this morning, cabin fever broke out. 

1 hour ago, Drifter Man said:

It's just one observation. I didn't pay enough attention to it before. But it's possible that the time you sleep is not included in the indoor/outdoor ratio for cabin fever, or it is treated so as not to change the risk percentage.

My own experience matches your first observation -- sleeping counts as indoor time for CF.  But it's trading hour-for-hour with the time sliding out of the 6-day window.  If those hours were also indoors you won't be changing the indoor : outdoor ratio.  If they were outdoors, you'll be increasing your CF risk.

[JAFO]

3 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

Do I need tools to repair the hammer? I thought I could do it without them...

Yes.. it requires tools (simple or quality) and a piece of fir wood to repair.

[selfless]

5 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

It's just one observation. I didn't pay enough attention to it before. But it's possible that the time you sleep is not included in the indoor/outdoor ratio for cabin fever, or it is treated so as not to change the risk percentage.

A "running average" as it is applied here is constantly changing which set of hours are part of the calculation.  Every time a new hour is added, one gets removed.  Basic application: if you were indoors from sunup to sundown six days ago, and do so again today, the running average stays exactly the same.  The only time it goes up is if you spend an hour indoors today that you spent outdoors 6 days ago, and you can cancel that by spending an hour outdoors that had been indoors.  It has nothing to do with sleeping.

Cabin fever only applies when it reaches 100%.  You can live indefinitly without effect at 90% risk as long as you maintain a schedule that does not increase that risk any further (balance exactly a 1-for-1 swap of indoor/outdoor hours).

Hope you understand.

[Timber Wolf]

Great explanation @selfless!  The tests I ran show exactly that.

It looks like about 78% (113 hours / 144 hours) is the magic number to acquire the risk of Cabin Fever.

[Drifter Man]

@Ruruwawa @selfless @Timber Wolf big thanks for explaining this to me. I can't believe I didn't figure it out myself! Of course, when I sleep indoors at the same time I slept 6 days ago, I'm not increasing cabin fever risk. Similarly, when I'm outside at the same time I was outside 6 days ago, I'm not reducing it.

So spending about 31 hours outside every six days should keep me free from cabin fever. A two-day session in the fishing hut (30 hours) should take care of that. I might be able to cut the consumption of matches with this information.

[Drifter Man]

7 hours ago, JAFO said:

Yes.. it requires tools (simple or quality) and a piece of fir wood to repair.

Oops... In that case I'm moving the piece of fir I've been saving from "material" to "fuel"  I've already scrapped the tools.

I think it's still very likely that the hammer and the hacksaw will both outlive me, but if I were to live for 150 days or so (i.e. if I had one more box of 12 matches), not repairing these tools would be a serious mistake.

[Drifter Man]

Snowball 47 / Day 91

During the last counter-cabin-fever fishing hut session I finally reached firestarting level 5, again, as the first Snowball in history. Some time ago there was discussion whether the combination of outdoor fire duration bonus and firestarting level 5 could allow me to run permanent fire in the fishing hut, eliminating the need for matches. The answer is no, as I can clearly see now: since day 51 I've been collecting 16 sticks a day on average, not counting coal and sticks brought in from more distant areas. To keep a fire burning for 24 hours, with all the bonuses that are available now, I would need about 90. No way.

Based on your advice here I decided to keep track of time spent outside and inside. Here's my current record:

• Day 88: 23/1 (indoor/outdoor)
• Day 89: 22/2
• Day 90: 22/2
• Day 91: 21/3

In total, I spent only 8 hours outdoors over the last 4 days and the benefits of the last stay in the fishing hut will soon evaporate. I'm running out of food anyway, so Days 92 and 93 will be fishing/cooking days.

• Firestarting: 23 matches, 0.88 L fish oil
• Medical: 12 pills of antibiotics, 2 bandages, 2 OMB wrappings, 1 stim, 5 rosehip tea, 19 rosehip buds, 10 resihi mushrooms
• Clothes: Thin wool sweater (77%), wool socks (70%), cotton toque (29%), wool toque (89%), wool scarf (66%), deerskin boots (94%), 2 pairs of deerskin pants (99%, 84%), rabbitskin mitts (94%), trail boots (99%). Bonus is at +11°C / +7°C
• Food: 4.2 kg fish, 8.7 kg raw fish, 60 cattail stalks, 3 boxes of crackers, 3 herbal tea and 2 coffee
• Fuel: 234 sticks, 7 coal, 4 cedar, 1 fir, 10 reclaimed wood
• Tools: Flare pistol with 2 flare shells, hacksaw (24%), heavy hammer (48%), 1 flare, 4 fishing tackle
• Material: 5 cloth, 5 leather, 2 rabbit pelts, 3 guts, 3 scrap metal

90 days survived.

[Drifter Man]

Snowball 47 / Day 93

At the end of the successful fishing session I calculated the moving average of indoor hours over the past 6 days: I spent 102 hours indoors, so one two-day session in the fishing hut per 6 days can keep me free of cabin fever risk. With the second pair of deerskin pants I can also survive outside temperatures of -50°C inside MH. Therefore only an inconveniently timed blizzard can force me to spend more than one match per 6 days. And indeed, since day 81 I've only used 3 matches - 3 matches in 12 days.

If I can limit my consumption to 1 match per 4 days, then my matchless day is Day 181! Interesting development. But before that happens, I will run out of cloth, and this will, in turn, reduce my clothing bonus and force me to start fires more often. Let's see who wins in the end: hacksaw, hammer or matches. Or a wolf 

[Ruruwawa]

15 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

Snowball 47 / Day 93

At the end of the successful fishing session I calculated the moving average of indoor hours over the past 6 days: I spent 102 hours indoors, so one two-day session in the fishing hut per 6 days can keep me free of cabin fever risk. With the second pair of deerskin pants I can also survive outside temperatures of -50°C inside MH. Therefore only an inconveniently timed blizzard can force me to spend more than one match per 6 days. And indeed, since day 81 I've only used 3 matches - 3 matches in 12 days.

If I can limit my consumption to 1 match per 4 days, then my matchless day is Day 181! Interesting development. But before that happens, I will run out of cloth, and this will, in turn, reduce my clothing bonus and force me to start fires more often. Let's see who wins in the end: hacksaw, hammer or matches. Or a wolf 

It's starting to get exciting now.  I hope it's not a wolf (so mundane) because that will mean Snowball 47 has truly defied the TWM 'loper deathtrap.  Not forever, but for far longer than anyone thought possible.   Hype time!

 

[Drifter Man]

Snowball 47 / Day 100

It appears I missed the deer train. Deer was supposed to appear on Day 97. I planned to spend that day (and Day 98 as well) in the fishing hut to fend off cabin fever, but I lost track of time due to the brief distraction of the Story mode. Instead I mostly remained in MH with a short and very successful stick collection run towards the bear cave at Echo Peak East. Surprisingly, Day 97 didn't bring cabin fever risk, and the deer did not appear either. I was looking out for it on Day 98, already from the fishing hut, but when there was no trace of the deer, I went back to my fishing routine during the night. While fishing, I think I overheard the characteristic "moo" sound of a deer dying, so I believe a wolf got it while I was occupied with the fishing tackle. I caught more than enough fish, though.

Unfortunately, the survival clock was removed from the journal and it is no longer possible to determine the exact hour and minute. This is going to kill many branches of "TLD science" that depend on reasonably accurate timekeeping. I can't properly keep track of indoor/outdoor hours anymore, and I can't pinpoint the right time of the day to take temperature measurements. Determining the fire duration bonus, like I did a while ago, would be nearly impossible now. I know I've never been supposed to do this, but I'm going to miss these options.

[JAFO]

28 minutes ago, Drifter Man said:

Unfortunately, the survival clock was removed from the journal and it is no longer possible to determine the exact hour and minute.

What? It's gone?!?

28 minutes ago, Drifter Man said:

This is going to kill many branches of "TLD science" that depend on reasonably accurate timekeeping. I can't properly keep track of indoor/outdoor hours anymore, and I can't pinpoint the right time of the day to take temperature measurements. Determining the fire duration bonus, like I did a while ago, would be nearly impossible now.

Damn.. that really sucks.

[Drifter Man]

49 minutes ago, JAFO said:

What? It's gone?!?

Damn.. that really sucks.

Yes, or it was moved somewhere where I couldn't find it. The journal only shows full days survived.

[Drifter Man]

Snowball 47 / Day 101

Snowball 47 has survived 100 days in Timberwolf Mountain. Only 20 matches are left, but at the current rate they can last at least 60 more days.

The deer did show up: several days late, but it did. And you know what? I'm leaving it alone. Fish are plentiful enough to feed me. The only reason I really want the deer is the hide, because I will need to repair my first pair of deerskin pants in about ... 50 days. Or maybe earlier, to keep my temp bonus up. At the same time, I don't feel like investing an extra match and firewood in the hunt and in the processing of the deer. If the deer survives into my next counter-cabin-fever session due in 3 days, and the conditions are suitable, I will get it then.

• Firestarting: 20 matches, 1.42 L fish oil
• Medical: 12 pills of antibiotics, 2 bandages, 2 OMB wrappings, 1 stim, 5 rosehip tea, 19 rosehip buds, 13 resihi mushrooms (2 processed to be ready for making a drink)
• Clothes: Thin wool sweater (73%), wool socks (63%), cotton toque (19%), wool toque (82%), wool scarf (61%), deerskin boots (93%), 2 pairs of deerskin pants (97%, 83%), rabbitskin mitts (91%), trail boots (98%). Bonus is at +11°C / +7°C
• Food: 14.9 kg cooked fish, 10.5 kg raw fish, 60 cattail stalks, 3 boxes of crackers, 3 herbal tea and 2 coffee
• Fuel: 195 sticks, 6 coal, 4 cedar, 1 fir, 10 reclaimed wood
• Tools: Flare pistol with 2 flare shells, hacksaw (24%), heavy hammer (46%), 1 flare, 4 fishing tackle
• Material: 5 cloth, 5 leather, 2 rabbit pelts, 3 guts, 3 scrap metal