The Firestarting RNG is at it again.


TROY

Recommended Posts

I REALLY hate to keep hammering this topic... actually, I don't, and I'll probly keep it up til its fixed.

I just had a failed attempt to start a fire with a 100% chance of success.  You CANNOT convince me that there isnt something broken with this mechanic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if I've had a fail at 100% yet, something's definitely up with that. On another note, I still get mad that I don't get a skill point for failing to start a fire. I understand it might change up the progression, but when you screw up starting a fire (in reality), you learn what not to do. That's still learning; and important at that.

I'll have to keep an eye on the 100% fire starting fail glitch though. With all the new games I've been playing after the update, I'm not sure I've correlated a fail with a character at 100% fire-starting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I guess it isnt just firestarting. I just had 4 failures in a row to repair a piece of clothing with an 85% chance of success. C'mon guys, seriously, please fix this, or at least admit that we dont really have the chance for success that it says we do, or tell us what is at play in determining this. Its like a 0.01% chance of that happening, and I understand random is random, and there is always a chance of failure, but I get this REGULARLY. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've noticed starting fires often still fails but I'm still at level 3 i think. Also I'm not sure but there maybe other factors that lower your chance, being tired, over the weight limit, etc. who knows maybe Patrick can clarify some of the variables / mechanics into successful fire starting / repairing clothes etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Well, I guess it isnt just firestarting. I just had 4 failures in a row to repair a piece of clothing with an 85% chance of success. C'mon guys, seriously, please fix this, or at least admit that we dont really have the chance for success that it says we do, or tell us what is at play in determining this. Its like a 0.01% chance of that happening, and I understand random is random, and there is always a chance of failure, but I get this REGULARLY. 

That's exactly how random chances work, it is not a bug. We don't weight the chances, so there is nothing to stop you from rolling a failure multiple times in a row. It's much like rolling dice. Just because you rolled a 6 before there is nothing to preclude you from rolling a 6 several time in a row.This is how unbiased/weight randomization works and we would expect to see these results. The initial issue you reported with fire starting is a valid concern that we've looked into, but failing at 85% is not a bug. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Support said:

That's exactly how random chances work, it is not a bug. We don't weight the chances, so there is nothing to stop you from rolling a failure multiple times in a row. It's much like rolling dice. Just because you rolled a 6 before there is nothing to preclude you from rolling a 6 several time in a row.This is how unbiased/weight randomization works and we would expect to see these results. The initial issue you reported with fire starting is a valid concern that we've looked into, but failing at 85% is not a bug. 

I understand how random chances work, but I also understand the odds of getting the same result over and over and extremely small, compared to the reality of what I'm experiencing in the game. I agree with you that there is nothing to preclude rolling a 6 several times in a row, but let me ask this, if you were playing dice against someone, and they consistently rolled 6's, how long before you started thinking they were cheating? How long before you accused them of using loaded dice? Just because there is nothing to preclude it does not mean there is a good or even marginal chance of it happening. And when something with a very very small chance of happening occurs repeatedly, the only logical conclusion is that some aspect of the process is either rigged, or not working properly. I am not accusing Hinterland of rigging the random chance system in the game (although it may have sounded like that), however, I am suggesting that something is at play here causing events which should be extraordinarily rare to be common. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Support  I believe I have an explanation for the failed firestart with 100% chance of success. I did not notice this until after I had posted, but I was using a fire striker tool, and the fire that failed was the fire that broke it.  It should have had 1% remaining AFTER starting that fire, and I don't take any issue with it breaking upon reaching 1% but it was not broken when the fire starting attempt began. I was able to reproduce this effect with another firestarter at 3% at the beginning of the attempt, and it broke as well, and the fire failed. So, maybe its a bug with the firestarter, breaking during use, rather than upon finishing the task, or perhaps its intended to work that way. Either way, that is the explanation for the failed 100% attempt. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, TROY said:

I understand how random chances work, but I also understand the odds of getting the same result over and over and extremely small, compared to the reality of what I'm experiencing in the game. I agree with you that there is nothing to preclude rolling a 6 several times in a row, but let me ask this, if you were playing dice against someone, and they consistently rolled 6's, how long before you started thinking they were cheating? How long before you accused them of using loaded dice? Just because there is nothing to preclude it does not mean there is a good or even marginal chance of it happening. And when something with a very very small chance of happening occurs repeatedly, the only logical conclusion is that some aspect of the process is either rigged, or not working properly. I am not accusing Hinterland of rigging the random chance system in the game (although it may have sounded like that), however, I am suggesting that something is at play here causing events which should be extraordinarily rare to be common. 

True. For example, with a 60% chance to light a fire failing 4 times in a row is 2.6% or slightly worse than 1 in 40 fires. Will this happen? Of course! Probably 2-3 times ever 40 fires or so. Happening every fire? Now that is a problem. Fortunately, the very few times this has happened to me (I think only 2 play sessions in the last 2 months) the fires will work normally again after closing my game and coming back to it the next day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Maybe keep a log of successes and failures, including the advertised chance of success.  It won't necessarily prove anything unless you're lighting thousands of fires, but its a bit more scientific than a gut feeling that its off, psychological effects can skew perception to a surprising degree (not that i'm saying there is definitely nothing wrong with the RNG).

Perhaps start up a google doc that several of us could contribute to, should be able to build up some numbers fairly quick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.